The Electoral College confirmationof Joe Biden clears his path to be sworn in as the 46th US president on January20, 2021.
Biden's win is generally regardedas the US' return to the global stage and a reversal of the anti-establishmentelements represented by outgoing President Donald Trump. As former vice presidentof the Obama administration, Biden's attitude on the issue of the Iran nucleardeal, or the JCPOA, is very different from that of the Trump government.
The Democratic president-electadheres to the basic attitude toward US-Iran relations that existed in theObama administration. Biden even publicly stated that he still holds previousperspectives on the Iran nuclear deal - and if Tehran returns to strictcompliance with the nuclear deal, Washington will rejoin the plan. However,Tehran says it will negotiate only if Washington lifts sanctions.
Iran has a basic logic for itsattitude toward Biden. First, Iran's national character is defined by strongpride. Although it hopes to ease relations with the US, it does not want to becompletely bossed around by the US government.
Second, Iran has yet to fullyrestore confidence in the US. Although Biden raised the possibility of the US'returning to the JCPOA, there is still more than a month before he officiallytakes office. During this period, the Trump administration still has a firmcontrol of US policy toward Iran. It may even adopt more radical moves.
On December 10, Morocco agreed tonormalize relations with Israel in a deal brokered with the Trumpadministration's help, making it the fourth Arab country that has done so in2020. This further demonstrates an expansion of the quasi-alliance betweenIsrael and moderate Arab states. Iran has reasons to doubt the Trumpadministration's motives and actions to further trash US-Iran relations beforethe end of his term.
Last, Iran is still calculatingwhat Trump's legacy will mean to the Biden administration, and to US society.Despite the failure of Trump's reelection, the impact of Trumpism on the US isstill obvious. There is a possibility that after the Biden administration takesoffice, Trumpism without Trump being president could still affect Biden'sforeign policy, to a certain extent.
Nonetheless, although Biden willunlikely alter the latest breakthroughs in Arab-Israel relations that the Trumpadministration has fostered, there is still room for US-Iran relations to turnthe tide. On the one hand, the Biden administration represents the return ofthe US' establishment camp that focuses on the multilateral global order. USrelations with Iran in recent years have been built on cold peace. Now, the UShopes to exert pressure on Iran to force it to make a change. A fundamentalpurpose is to foster Iran's internal social transition, thus seeking relativebalance in the Middle East. Under such circumstances, there is a possibility ofcompromise between the Biden administration and Iran to lift sanctions againstTehran.
On the other hand, the Bidenadministration represents the return of the traditional US, which includespresident's personal prudent behavior, maintenance of US global reputation andrespect for the international system. Unlike the Trump administration, which isperverse and accustomed to bullying, the Biden administration is more likely torestore US credibility after taking office.
In the long run, US-Iran relationsunder Biden may return to the basic framework of the Iran nuclear deal, butfrictions still exist on some specific issues of the agreement. In addition,the continuous breakthroughs of Arab-Israel ties will, to a large extent,create new constraints on US-Iran relations.
（作者：钮松，上海外国语大学中东研究所研究员）
来源：Global Times
