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钮松:How cooperation among China, Russia and Iran will be updated under Raisi era
发布时间: 2021-06-27 浏览次数: 10

EbrahimRaisi has won Iran's presidential election, as expected. Educated in theseminary, Raisi has served in several positions in Iran's judicial system. Heascended from chief justice to president and is likely to be the next supremeleader. His life experience features both hard line and Shia clerics.

Whenit comes to the Raisi administration's foreign policy, two aspects should beconsidered. Firstly, in terms of dealing with the West, Raisi is expected totake a tough line in defending Iran's economic and security interests. InJanuary, 2020, Raisi said that Iran planned to sue the then US president DonaldTrump for the assassination of General Qasem Soleimani. In January 2021, Raisiwarned that Soleimani's killers will not be safe on Earth, during aceremony in Tehran to mark the one-year anniversary of the drone assassinationof Soleimani.

Donot presume that someone, as the president of America, who appeared as amurderer or ordered a murder, may be immune from justice being carried out.Never, said Raisi, adding, those who had a role in thisassassination and crime will not be safe on Earth.

Secondly,Raisi will attach great importance to strengthening security cooperation andreligious ties with Islamic countries, and pay close attention to theIsraeli-Palestinian issue.

Regardlessof his hard line, Raisi's top priority is to address livelihood problems causedby the US sanctions. Although Raisi is talking tough, rejecting the possibilityof meeting with US President Joe Biden, this does not mean Raisi's governmentwill take a radical confrontational policy against the US. After Raisi's newgovernment formally takes office, hardliners in Iran are likely to promote anew nuclear agreement, which will be helpful for improving Iran's economy.

Raisiwill be formally inaugurated as Iran's president on August 3, when the US-Iranrelationship might witness many possibilities. On the whole, whether the Raisiadministration admits it or not, Washington will remain an important and eventhe primary factor affecting Iran's domestic and diplomatic interests.

Someanalysts argue that Raisi will center his foreign policy on the LookEast strategy, which means closer cooperation with China and Russia afterhe takes office. The advancement of Iran-China relations and Iran-Russiarelations has always been supported by the supreme leader Khamenei. The Raisiadministration will continue the existing cooperation framework and mechanismswith China and Russia. Iran's relations with China and Russia are hopeful toenjoy development in the following two fields.

First,China and Russia are likely to take further active steps on the Iranian nucleardeal, especially by hosting events to address relevant problems. Raisi willcontinue to emphasize the roles of China and Russia in helping restore thenuclear deal.

Second,China and Russia may, within the framework of the Organization of IslamicCooperation (OIC), further exert the positive influence of Islamic factors onthe trilateral relations between China, Russia and Iran.

Raisiis not only the next president, but also the possible supreme leader. TheIslamic factor will be an important ideological foundation for his foreignpolicy. On June 13, China's first-appointed representative to the OIC submittedhis appointment letter to the secretary-general of the organization, whichmarked the establishment of China's institutional links with the organization.Besides, Russia is an observer country of the OIC. This provides a newopportunity for China and Russia to strengthen exchanges and coordination withIran on Iran-related issues within the framework of OIC.

Nonetheless,Iran under the Raisi era is unlikely to form an alliance with China and Russia.In other words, Raisi will not take sides between the US and China and Russia.To a large extent, Raisi's foreign policy has two dimensions: taking a toughattitude toward Washington and deepening political and religious ties with theIslamic world. After all, China and Russia are not Islamic countries. Aftertaking office, the Raisi government will continue the practices of the HassanRouhani government, and will maintain a relatively close interaction with Chinaand Russia. It may further develop the 25-year cooperation agreement withChina. However, this will not lead to a so-called new alliance between Iran,China and Russia. Besides, Beijing and Moscow have shown no desire to form suchan alliance.

(作者:钮松,上海外国语大学中东研究所研究员)

来源:Global Times